NCCI has released two reports that are essential reading for risk managers and anyone else who enjoys the Big – albeit somewhat gloomy – Picture.
The first report is a summary of workers comp performance through 2010: while many indicators are positive or at least neutral, the major concern is overall performance. The combined ratio for insurers (losses plus expense) is creeping steadily upward: 101 percent in 2008, 110 percent in 2009, 115 percent in 2010. In other words, in 2010 carriers spent 15 percent more than they earned through premiums. Even with improved returns on investments, insurers are caught in the zone where many are losing money, especially those whose combined ratios have drifted above the average.
The troubled economy has complicated matters: as payrolls go down, premiums go down with them. Comp premium peaked in 2005 at $47.8B; in 2010, premium totaled $33.8B. To be sure, fewer people are working, but that often results in increased stresses – and risks – for those who still have jobs.
Finally, there is the highly politicized issue of rates for comp insurance. No state wants to be the first raise the rates, as this increases the cost of doing business and makes the state less competitive in attracting new business. So states hold the line or even force reductions, making all businesses – except insurance related – happy.
The Really Big Picture
For those of you who seek perspectives beyond comp, into the broadest possible, world-wide view of risk transfer, Robert Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute offers slides that are compelling viewing. He examines the dual specters of terrorism and natural catastrophe. Bin Laden’s unlamented death may increase the risk of attack in the coming months, resulting in open-ended exposures for workers comp and property insurance. As for natural disasters, with the spate of earthquakes, tsunamis, and tornadoes, any actuary who is paying attention is having trouble sleeping these days.
Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown appears to be the most expensive natural disaster in history. The total losses are expected to run between $100-300B, of which only a relatively small portion ($45B) is insured. (Government will bear the brunt.)
Tornadoes tearing through mid-America thus far have avoided major population areas, but the recent event at the St. Louis airport raises the specter of urban disaster.
Who Pays?
When calamity strikes, the impact is greatest on reinsurance, which kicks in when limits are reached in-front line policies. With the unprecedented scale of recent events, the cost of reinsurance must go up, and as it does, the cost of insurance for the consumer (business and personal) goes up with it. We live in risky times and the increasing costs of risk transfer reflect our darkening world.
One final note: Hartwig reveals that the 9/11 attacks added 1.9 percent to the combined ratio for 2001, which totaled a robust 121.7 percent. That’s a sobering thought for this beautiful spring morning. My advice? Slap on some sunscreen and get out for a stroll. There’s no better cure for gloomy data than a walk in the sunshine.
Tags: economy, market conditions, NCCI, reports
